What is New?

I. The first topic is WAR AND ECONOMICS

The data show that in countries with fertility rates higher than 5, then there is a 75% probability of war. Countries with fertility rates less than 2, then the probability of war is between 5 and 8%.

My research highlights that countries face the choice between two equilibria. The first is characterized by high fertility rates, a young population and a high risk of conflict. In contrast, the second one is marked by low fertility rates, an aging population, and a low conflict probability. See the following table.

II. The second topic is GEOPOLITICS AND ECONOMIC POLICY

1.

The first question I ask is: WILL CHINA LEAPFROG THE WEST?

MY ANSWER 20 YEARS AGO WAS: PROBABLY NO

MY ANSWER TODAY IN 2025 IS: PROBABLY YES.

a.

If the Western world remains open to accepting major ethical and legal changes, then there will be no leapfrogging. No global leadership by China; they will be convergence. The entire world will shift from

HOMO-SAPIENS to HOMO-AI.

b.

If the Western world will not adapt and adopt the changes, then China will become the leader of the world.

Then China will rule the world.

From Pax Americana to Pax China

2.

My three new papers related to GEOPOLITICS AND ECONOMIC POLICY are:

* Geopolitics, Trade Policy and Social Identity in a Historical Perspective

I show that hegemonic periods are associated with free trade waves, while balance-of-power periods are linked to protectionism and higher rates of tariffs (Trump policy).

* Geopolitics and the Divergent Views Between the Transnational Elite and the People on Sovereignty and Autocracy.

During periods of hegemonic leadership, both the working class and the transnational elite converge on democratic and liberal values, but during periods of balance-of-power rivalry, their preferences diverge sharply.

In such contexts, the working class prioritizes national sovereignty even at the cost of tolerating autocracy, while the elite continues to support democratic and liberal principles.

* Geopolitics and Financial Contagion: Are Crises Becoming More Global?

Financial crises follow cyclical patterns—periods of contagion, when crises spread rapidly across borders, alternate with periods of containment, when they remain isolated.

These financial cycles are correlated to geopolitical ones: hegemony fosters containment, while power rivalry breeds contagion, as the absence of a global "common good" policy allows crises to spread.

III. The other research topics:

1. Elites, elitism index, higher education

My research on elites and social mobility has shown that one of the elements affecting social stratification is the higher education system. My research emphasizes that duality in higher education institutions, namely the differences between elite and standard universities, denoted as elitism, is a key factor in the formation and self-reproduction of the elites.

I have developed frameworks for analyzing the effect of elitism on inequality, social immobility, and economic growth. I have developed an index of elitism.

2. Revolving door between regulatory agencies and the private sector

The "revolving door" is a practice in which top regulators after completing their term, enter the private sector they have regulated. Most economists think this practice leads to abuse of power and corruption as explained by the "regulatory capture theory". So why do governments let this practice continue?

My research shows that the revolving door is neither a regulatory capture issue, nor a corruption or abuse issue, but rather an ethical problem. I've been able to model the revolving door and to quantify its economic impact. I introduce the notion of "bureaucratic capital" and have created a revolving door index. I perform empirical analysis on its effects on the economy. The results were presented at the OECD Global Anti-Corruption and Integrity Forum.

3. Migration and brain drain

Migration has a profound effect on society. My research, based on models of multiple equilibria, has shown that under certain circumstances, immigration can be positive for countries receiving migrants, and negative for countries "exporting" migrants.

I've also analyzed the economic outcome on individuals, and whether individuals should migrate before getting an education or after. Optimal migration decisions depend on the depreciation rate of human capital, denoted as "brain waste", that is due to differences in the quality of education systems between countries.

4. Peer review

I research the scholarly peer review process, a cornerstone of scientific publishing and academic knowledge sharing. The peer review process has been subject to several criticisms, including reviewer bias, and inherent non-objectivity. My research has shown that peer review almost always leads to arbitrary results, and that the existing system impedes technological innovation. I propose a simple solution with a focal randomization process.

5. Economics of transition

The end of the 20th century has witnessed transition process from communism and autocracies to capitalism and democracies in Eastern Europe, but not in Asia. In Asia and especially China, there was a move from communism to capitalism, but not to democracy. My papers explain why the transition process has been different in Eastern Europe and in Asia.

I focus on finding exogenous elements that trigger transitions. My research explains why geography with a domino effect, and the strength of repressive forces, both influence political and economic transitions.

6. Models of Demography

Demographic transitions are some of the main factors governing economic growth. There are two main frameworks for analyzing the dynamics of demography. The canonical Malthusian model, in which children are a consumption good, and the Marxian model that explains the emergence of a proletariat, where children are an investment good. (Latin proletarii means 'those with children').

I have developed a framework based on the Marxian features, that explains why in developing countries, higher incomes lead to a decrease in fertility rates. Adopting this framework enables improved policy planning.

7. New data in economic history

I research periods of great change in economic history. Without accurate data, macroeconomists cannot interpret facts in a convincing way. I have worked on two specific periods of history – the 19th century in the UK and the French Revolution.

Data on the balance of payments of England existed only from the 19th century onward and shows that England has had a surplus balance of payments. In my 1995 article in Economic History Review, using novel cross-referential historical documents, I have developed the data on the balance of payments of England during the entire 18th century. I have shown that England had a balance of payments deficit, contrarily to the previous view that it was similar to the 19th century. Those findings shed new light on the financing of investments which paved the way to the industrial revolution.

I have also worked on the inflation dynamics during the French Revolution caused by the issuing of assignats (revolutionary paper money). I gather new sources of historical monthly data on inflation. I have found that at its peak in 1795, annual inflation level was around 3500%.

8. Israeli economy

• Sole importers and cost of living
  My research clarifies why sole importers are so numerous in Israel. It analyzes its effects on competition and prices.
  
  
• Concentration of the import sector
  My research focuses on the concentration of the import sector and suggests ways of fighting it by making online imports more accessible.
  
  
• Revolving door in Israel
  I present cases of revolving doors in Israel and analyze whether cooling off periods are a relevant panacea for this phenomenon.
  
  
• Monetary aggregates and inflation
  I analyze which of the monetary aggregates the central bank should monitor. Credit is the best target in times of high inflation.